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di Giancarlo Nicoli

Graph represents 'ahrahr' (which is me) CAPS performance as on Fool.com

ahrahr (99.30)

ahrahr lost to the market on Friday

Rank: 510 out of 72262

Nothing written below can be construed as an invitation to invest in the detailed securities. Do your own DD.

My opinions FWIW for 2011:

#1 – I think we are in a secular bear market. The secular bear market theory is quite a long subject. You can find more
– here: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471716928?ie=UTF8&t……
– and here: http://www.johnmauldin.com/ (search for “secular bear market”)

#2 – I think we are in a deflationary environment;

#3 – I think it is foolish to try to time the market;

#4 – I think money can be made in the stockmarket nonetheless via some stock picking.

My investment themes:

– I choose reliable, boring, high yield stocks. Study after study shows this is the best way to consistently beat the market.
I own CWH, E, ENEL.MI (Milan stock exchange); ENP, NLY, NRF-B, STON. Also SGI.L (London Stock Exchange) which pays a decent dividend and it is a good growth story for the patient investor.

– I’m a community pharmacist and I think (I’m not being modest here: I hope you understand) I have an edge with biotech/medtech.
I own DNDN (plenty – just a bit less than half my portfolio), SGMO, STXS.

– I own VHC due to the fact that Ming the Merciless (of IV fame) alerted me on that name (!).

With regard to the Maslow hierarchy of needs, so to speak, I think healthcare is just at the top of needs/expectations of all the people.

Now some short commentary. It’s all MHO an YMMV obviously.

– DNDN is by far my favourite stock. Company is doing well. Market for their FDA-approved treatment is large.
They have a huge barrier to entry. No generic competition in sight even after patent expiration. Production process is secret. Competition would have to steal secret or spend years trying to find out how acually Provenge is made. Also, a generic would have to undergo a PIII trial, which in my opinion is unethical.
DNDN process to obtain Provenge is scalable. They have a pipeline with treatments that target several others cancers. DNDN is the history of medicine being made under our eyes.
Market can (and certainly will) go down, so DNDN will. So what? Investment horizon here is not just a couple of years (as I say below) but much more. DNDN is and will be a winner.
They are a five bagger from current stock price over a couple of years in my opinion if the Company executes.

– Next is STXS. They have a magnetic field inducing machine that can safely guide and steer magnetically tipped catheters inside the blood vessels. They have strong IP and strong physicians endorsement. (They should change the BOD really, Company has been poorly guided through a couple of butched share offerings).
Technology is excellent and proven, market is large and expanding, it’s a three bagger within just 2011 if management does well and it’s a five bagger anytime in case they are going to be bought out. Why is a buyout likely? Because there are at least three catheter producers (it’ a 70%+ margin business): JNJ, STJ, Biotronik; and medtech equipment producers: MDT, GE – the one that owns the platform shuts out all the others from the market overnight.
STXS used to be my second largest holding, but it is now the third because…

– I bought SGMO in the low 3s and I’m already sitting on a two bagger.
SGMO holds the Holy Grail wrt DNA manipulation. They can delete, insert, exchange a gene at will, quickly and with accuracy.
Their technology is proven and they are receiving royalties (not many dollars yet) from Sigma Aldrich (Genetic Modified lab rats and mice) and Dow Agro (GM seeds).
They possibly have at hand a cure against HIV/AIDS (Google: “Berlin Patient”).
That alone would be very big.
Applications of their technology are enormous.
SGMO market cap as of friday’s close is $300M. What if HIV/AIDS treatment works? A ten bagger? Naaah! More than that imo obviously.
Those that can handle it might want to check the SGMO board on IV and look for the adenylyl series: How To Cure AIDS.
A link is here:

– I own VHC because they won the lawsuit against MSFT and because plotinus and ming are here (chech the IV board for plotinus4me and Ming the Merciless). That’ all my dd on that name, since it is well beyond my expertise.

– One last word wrt BMTI, first suggested to me by plotinus. I’m still doing my dd, but at first glance they possibily are much more than a two bagger over the next five years. I think it is wise not to expect a sharp price appreciation over the short term on this name. You never know how a biotech investment is going to play out within a few months. But it is my opinion that this company has legs and it is going to appreciate consistently over the next several years. I will be a buyer with “new” money, either diversification out of a five bagger from current bio-med-tech positions or from savings over the coming months.

Good luck to all and all have this brand new 2011 as a good, happy, safe and prosperous year!

Disclosure. I’m long many of the stocks described above.

This post is not intended to be investment advice of any kind. YMMV. Do your own DD.

Again, this is NOT investment advice.

This is NOT analysis, which is something six-figure equity research types do as full-time jobs for brokerage firms.

This is blogging. I just do like to share ideas.

And, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Post di Giancarlo Nicoli, Appiano Gentile, CO.
Il presente articolo è stato scritto da Giancarlo Nicoli. Le informazioni qui contenute sono state ricavate da fonti, che Giancarlo Nicoli ha ritenuto affidabili. L’accuratezza e la completezza delle stesse non può essere in nessun modo garantita. La presente pubblicazione viene pubblicata per meri fini di informazione ed illustrazione, non costituendo peraltro la stessa in alcun modo una proposta di conclusione di contratto o una sollecitazione all’acquisto o alla vendita di qualsiasi strumento finanziario. Il documento può essere riprodotto nella sua interezza. A tal proposito si chiede la cortesia di citare la fonte: www.scoprire.biz. La presente pubblicazione non si propone di sostituire il giudizio personale dei soggetti a cui si rivolge. Giancarlo Nicoli ha la facoltà di agire in base a/ovvero di servirsi di qualsiasi materiale sopra esposto e/o di qualsiasi informazione a cui tale materiale si ispira prima che lo stesso venga pubblicato e messo a disposizione dei lettori.
Giancarlo Nicoli può occasionalmente assumere posizioni lunghe o corte nei summenzionati prodotti finanziari.
I link eventualmente presenti sono stati verificati e risultano funzionanti al momento della pubblicazione del presente articolo.


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