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Mar
7
Stereotaxis, comments regarding the last conference call (Q4 & FY2009)
Filed Under Investimenti, Stereotaxis | Leave a Comment
di Philip Vardena
Stereotaxis, comments regarding the last conference call (Q4 & FY2009)
ahrahr (99.12)
ahrahr beat the market on Friday
Rank: 610 out of 69556
With STXS, I’m down -20.56% since I selected it with CAPS, against a S&P -6.50%. My CAPS loss is -14.16.
This post is devoted to a review of Q4 and FY2009 numbers; and some comments regarding the last CC.
For a review of what Stereotaxis does and why I like the stock, please see my previous post.
On Thursday February 25, 2010, Stereotaxis reported: 16% revenue increase in the fourth quarter 2009; new orders up 22% sequentially; second consecutive quarterly increase; recurring revenue reached record $5.1 Million; cash burn declined to $2.9 Million; full year 2009 revenue up 27%; gross margin percentage of 67%; operating expenses decreased 14% .
There were many positive and constructive things said on the cc (transcript courtesy of SeekingAlpha):
#1 – “During the year, we saw our first placements of Odyssey and non-Niobe or standard labs, demonstrating its broadening appeal as well as its potential to be a significant driver of future growth.“ Odyssey is an EP lab information management system, designed to optimize workflow and improve productivity, that enables live case transmission, remote procedure sharing, and even remote training. An EP lab can use it without a Niobe. I think it’s a positive that labs are purchasing it as a standalone, because I believe it will lead future Niobe sales (An Odyssey system is less expensive to purchase than a Niobe).
#2 – “(…) patient demand to be treated on the Stereotaxis System is emerging as awareness of the safety and efficacy is becoming more widespread. A live procedure featuring the Niobe was broadcast on the Today’s Show on NBC early in the month and led to several hundred inquiries into the University of Cleveland, where the procedure was performed, within a 24-hour period following the broadcast.The hospitals who informed us to pick several patients throughout North America have been scheduled for the procedure. We also were featured in a BBC documentary and individual hospitals such as Henry Ford in Michigan have advertised the Stereotaxis procedure in the Wall Street Journal New York Times, generating inquiries in the scheduling of procedures.” This a big driver towards widespread adoption of Stereotaxis technology, as everybody can learn from the Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) experience.
#3 – “(…) a worldwide market of more than 12,000 electrophysiology interventional cardiology labs combined (…)” It is the first time I find an accurate estimate of how many EP labs there are around the world. Total Niobe installed base should be 145 (or a number very close to that). It’s actually something more than a 1% penetration. There are vast, green pastures ahead!
#4 – “It’s now about 20, it’s in the mid-20s, 22% to 23% of total sites in Europe and the US are using it (note: Niobes) more than three cases a week.“ That leaves 75% of sites that are using Niobes less than three cases a week. There’s substantial growth ahead, not just from new sites, but from sites that already have a Niobe system.
#5 – On break-even: “To us a break-even quarter is probably something like a $23 million revenue quarter (…) it probably looks like something like 10 Niobe, 20 Odyssey, you know, 10 Cinema, that’s what kind of the quarter would like for us.”
#6 – I’m paraphrasing now. Since Niobe systems are usually sold along with x-ray equipment (typically from Siemens or Philips), Charley Jones of Barrington Research asks a tangential question: Do you have any expectation about the number of X-ray systems that will go into EP labs or new EP labs or redone EP labs in 2010 either in the US, globally, or split up? Mike Kaminski (STXS CEO) answers that STXS is assuming a worldwide number still between 250 and 300, and they get that through their partners. Half of them in the US and the lion’s share of the rest is in Europe and then bounce sprinkle. And China is coming up obviously with a very strong market. In other words, this is how large is the yearly market.
All in all, a good (but not stellar) quarter, and quite a bright horizon ahead for STXS.
Disclosure: I’m long STXS shares.
Just my opinion, not investment advice of any sort.
Mar
7
Il golpino
Filed Under Beppe Grillo sì e no | Leave a Comment
di Giancarlo Nicoli
Non è un vero golpe, perché non coinvolge il governo nazionale ma due governi regionali, allora lo chiamo il “golpino”. E quella in cui viviamo non è più una democrazia, ma non è nemmeno una dittatura. I dissidenti latino-americani penso la chiamerebbero una “dittablanda”.
La domanda alla quale bisogna rispondere è la seguente: se una qualunque lista dell’opposizione, dopo aver presentato in tribunale le carte relative alla partecipazione alle elezione regionale, fosse stata respinta per via del più piccolo vizio di forma, avrebbe trovato il governo pronto a legiferare per riammeterla?
Ne scrive Beppe Grillo, e sono completamente d’accordo con lui (pubblico uno stralcio):
Da questa notte l’Italia non è più, ufficialmente, una democrazia. Napolitano ha firmato il decreto della legge interpretativa del Governo che rende alcuni italiani più uguali degli altri. Le leggi d’ora in poi saranno interpretate, ogni volta che converrà a loro, da questi golpisti da barzelletta e, alla bisogna, interverrà un presidente della Repubblica che dovrebbe essere messo sotto impeachment per alto tradimento.
Napolitano ha firmato di notte, di fretta, mentre gli italiani dormivano (forse per una volta si vergognava anche lui). Le liste elettorali senza firme, con firme non autenticate, liste neppure presentate, le liste porcata sono state interpretate, riverginate. Formigoni e Polverini sono stati riammessi. Una qualunque lista dell’opposizione con il più piccolo vizio di forma sarebbe stata respinta. Siamo in dittatura. Sembra strana questa parola detta all’inizio di una nuova primavera: “dittatura“.
Il post completo è qui: http://www.beppegrillo.it/2010/03/colpo_di_stato.html
Perfino la Chiesa Cattolica, solitamente prudente, ha qualche cosa da dire:
“Cambiare le regole del gioco mentre il gioco è già in atto è altamente scorretto, perchè si legittima ogni intervento arbitrario con la motivazione che ragioni più o meno intrinseche o pertinenti mettono un gioco un valore”. E’ quanto sottolinea Monsignor Domenico Mogavero, vescovo di Mazara del Vallo, e presidente per gli Affari Giuridici della Cei, in un intervento su Radio Vaticana sul rapporto tra voto elettorale e democrazia.
Link: http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/politica/2010/02/27/visualizza_new.html_1708895521.html
Feb
28
di Philip Vardena
Stereotaxis Inc., my ten bagger candidate.
ahrahr (99.20)
ahrahr beat the market on Friday
CAPS Rank: 479 out of 69524
With STXS, I’m down -33.57% since I selected it with CAPS, against a S&P -9.38%. My CAPS loss is -24.19.
This post is going to be entirely devoted to Stereotaxis, Inc. (Nasdaq: STXS), which designs, manufactures, and markets cardiology instrument control system for use in hospital’s interventional surgical suite or interventional lab to treat arrhythmias and coronary artery disease.
Before delving into commentary and analysis of the company my background first.
Under the ahrahr nickname there’s a community pharmacist. Warren Buffett famously said that you should invest in what you understand. Thank you Mr. Buffett, my studies and my job allow me to understand most biotechnology and healthcare equipment and supplies companies.
Truth is, a cyberpal back in 2006 (if I recall correctly) alerted me — on a message board, that is — about this company. I studied it since then, and bought my first shares early in 2008.
The Stereotaxis main product, whose name is Niobe, is a proprietary Magnetic Navigation System that’s designed to allow physicians to more effectively navigate catheters, guidewires and other magnetic interventional devices, through the blood vessels and chambers of the heart to treatment sites and then to effect treatment. This is achieved using computer-controlled, externally applied magnetic fields that precisely and directly govern the motion of the internal working tip of the catheter, guidewire or other magnetic interventional devices.
What do I like about the company? Their equipment is superior both to the manual intervention technique and to the only competitor that now exists (it is Hansen Medical, Nasdaq: HNSN).
Why is it superior? Because:
#1 – It takes less time to navigate the catheter into the heart (times are commonly halved);
#2 – It allows physicians go in the cardiovascular system in places that are very difficult or impossible to reach with manual or robotic;
#3 – It is a safer procedure for the patient. Only one adverse event (not fatal) reported to date, against a 2-to-6 percent adverse event ratio with manual. Robotic procedures (i.e. those done with Hansen equipment) experience an adverse event ratio similar to manual.
#4 – It is a safer procedure for the physician. With either manual and robotic, the physician (with his/her heavy lead dress) has to stay close to the patient. Thus they are exposed to x-rays anyway. A Niobe machine is operated from a different, lead-shielded room. The physician gets zero x-rays. And his/her movements are without the heavy lead dress.
#5 – STXS actually has FDA approval to do procedures with Niobe equipment and both in-house and partnered catheters. HNSN product, the Sensei, only has FDA approval for mapping, but not for ablations. They are doing these off-label.
There are some hard facts I like about STXS as an investment. These are:
#1 – Intellectual Property rights. If you want to go magnetic, it’s Stereotaxis’ IP.
#2 – Companies that have magnetic catheters (Biosense Webster, a division of JNJ) or that are developing them (STJ), must use those catheters with Niobes. STXS gets a royalty every time those catheters are used.
#3 Leading international physicians are endorsing STXS. You can check this via PubMed and other peer-reviewed publications. Soon every EP lab will want to have a Niobe.
#4 There possibly is a bidding war for STXS on the horizon. If you want to be in the catheter business, STXS is what you must own. Remember, STXS has the Intellectual Property. A Niobe machine can now use catheters from JNJ, Biotronik and, in the near future, STJ. Just imagine that one of these players wants all the pie: one has to buy STXS and shuts all the competitors out. Bidders might also be GE, MDT, Siemens, Philips…
Next post will be a comment of the recently released Q4 and FY2009 data.
Disclosure: I’m long STXS shares.
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